When the potential is given to the average guy that he can possibly replace his existing income with profits from Forex, it becomes an easy aspiration to want to trade for a living.
Simply because you might have had a few good months, don't be so quick to tell your boss to piss off. There's a lot to consider before you do so.
First, let's think long term. Right now you most likely have a job. It's not likely you plan to work until you die. There is a point where you would want to be able to retire. For most, that age is on their mid to late sixties. You will need a big pile of money to support your retirement lifestyle. Do you really plan to stay glued to your charts your entire life? Of course not.
To secure your retirement you will need to consider the amount of money you will need to be financially independent. If at a minimum you are satisfied with your existing lifestyle, then take your gross income, subtract taxes, all current liabilities, and existing amount you currently save. What's left is your current lifestyle.
For simplicity let's say you currently gross $60,000, but after taxes and other expenses your existing lifestyle requires 30k a year. If you plan to retire and live for 30 years in your retirement you would need to accumulate $2.6 million dollars. The assumption being that you planning to retire in 30 years, are obtaining a minimum of a 5% return on your investment, and battling a 3% inflation rate. You would need to set aside over $600,000 today if you wanted to secure such a retirement.
There are other elements to consider. And that pertains to your risk management. It's likely you are getting your health, life, long term care, and disability insurances provided by for your employer. If not, then you should add another 25% to your existing lifestyle because when you are trading for a living you have to take care of those expenses on your own and it does not come cheap. This can be considerably costly if you or an existing family member are unhealthy or uninsured. If that is the case you will need to set aside a considerable sum of money to absorb such risks.
And I don't want to hear how your spouse has these insurances covered through his/her employment. Don't be a d*ck. Retire your spouse first or retire together. Don't be the @sshole that gets to chill out at home when you send your spouse out to support your nonsense.
This is your life and it is serious business. Don't be a fool. You are already nuts because you trade currency, but for the love of all that is holy, don't don't put your family at jeopardy. Even if you are single don't be stupid. It's not worth the risk, even for yourself.
Therefore, do not trade for a living until you have amassed a bankroll that allows you to set aside the net present value of your retirement. Thereafter, have two years of lifestyle income set aside at a rate that would include taxes and your insurance expenses. And finally, you can take a dump on your boss' desk when the monthly withdrawal rate from your account can cover your lifestyle expenses making sure you leave in enough gains to allow the account and your withdrawal size to keep up with a 3% inflation rate and whatever amount you want your bankroll to further grow on an annual basis.
Trading can be stressful enough. And that stress only exponentially compounds when your ability to financially survive is taken into consideration.
If you are interested in knowing what it personally takes for you to go pro, feel free to message me or reply below. I can help to work out the numbers for you so you know what you're up against in this crazy game we play.
#priceactionhero
Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/49894-trading-living-when-go-pro.html#ixzz3v26HXbxu
Monday, 21 December 2015
Managing Profit
Managing Profit
In a world where everyone is obsessed with preparing for the worst, there seems to be little time dedicated to the subject of preparing for success. Of course we need to protect against capital loss and financial failure, but once we have appropriate measures in place to limit risk and to exit a trade quickly if price action moves against us, it is time to focus on what to do with profit.
And let’s be totally honest and open about this. Yes, there are plenty of traders out there making regular profits, but that does not automatically guarantee success. Profit is one thing. What you do with profit is something else.
After spending 16 years building and operating my own companies, and interacting with countless others, I can assure you that profitable businesses regularly go belly-up for much the same reason as those that make trading losses. That is, a lack of financial management.
All the profit in the world is useless if it is tied up in stock and debtors, and not available to meet financial obligations as and when those obligations fall due. Likewise, a business has no chance of growing and realizing its full potential if its owners drain it of cash and neglect to accumulate capital to fund future growth.
If you are a reasonably successful trader with a solid history of profitable trades, but you don’t seem to be making progress financially, it is almost certain that you lack a clear and precise plan for managing profits. If you cannot answer the following questions you don’t have a money management plan:
· When should you begin making profit withdrawals from your trading account?
· How do you continue to grow your capital base whilst enjoying the fruits of success along the way?
· How much capital is enough to sustain you long-term?
· How much do you need to earn from your trading activities to become financially independent?
· Do you even know where financial independence is for you? Do you know when you have arrived?
WHEN TO BEGIN PROFIT WITHDRAWALS
In order to build up future income potential it is important to accumulate profits and grow your initial start-up capital. So don’t be impatient. Allow sufficient time to grow your capital to the point where it is able to sustain your lifestyle and meet your financial objectives.
But it is also important to take rewards along the way, and to enjoy the fruits of success. This requires finding a balance between capital growth and withdrawal of profits. Personally, I achieve this by following a simple and easy to apply management plan that I have outlined below.
Your first goal is to take back your initial investment, thus reducing risk to zero. If you start with, say, $500 capital, let it grow to $1,000 and then withdraw your $500 start-up capital. You now have your initial $500 back in your pocket, you are 100% risk free, and you have made a 100% gain to date.
From this point forward, every time you triple your account balance, you withdraw one-third. So, $500 triples to $1,500 and a $500 withdrawal is made. You now have $1,000 in your account and another $500 in your pocket. Your $1,000 triples to $3,000 and a $1,000 withdrawal is made. You now have $2,000 in your account and another $1,000 in your pocket. This triples to $6,000 and a $2,000 withdrawal is made, so you now have $4,000 in your account, and you have put another $2,000 in your pocket.
With each cycle you increase your capital, which in turn accelerates future earnings. The timeframe between each cycle is therefore reduced, whilst the returns from each cycle are increased. Repeating the above cycle just three more times will result in $48,000 capital, and a $16,000 withdrawal.
You see? Nothing complicated about this simple money management plan, and you can begin applying it today without any formal training whatsoever.
WHEN TO CEASE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
Somewhere along the way you are going to have to thoroughly explore your current living expenses, your discretionary spending on things like entertainment, travel, and the other vocational activities that make up your lifestyle, and consider your long-term financial objectives.
A practical and realistic starting point is the current household budget. You must identify each expenditure that must be met, like rent/mortgage, utility bills, telephone, food, insurances, vehicle operating costs, school fees, health, and all those other items that must be met in order to simply maintain your current living standards. It is important to include even the basics like your daily bread, milk, and newspaper, so that an accurate cost base can be established.
Repeat this process with discretionary items. Remember, it is important to capture everything, so please give this adequate time to build a complete picture. This exercise is not about cutting corners, but rather, it is about maintaining your chosen lifestyle.
Finally, give due consideration to your current financial objectives. This might include paying off the mortgage early, clearing credit card debt, building a share portfolio, property investment, or simply building a cash reserve on which to fall back on in the event of crisis. You need to convert this into a weekly sum that is set aside to meet your financial objectives. Whatever your financial objectives, keep to what you already have in mind. That is, do not increase your existing expectations at this point in time. Remember, we are simply trying to establish exactly where you are up to right now in terms of what you have, and what you plan for the future.
Combining your household budget, discretionary spending, and financial objectives, will provide you with a benchmark. This benchmark represents the income you need each week, month, or year, to meet household expenditure, discretionary spending, and financial objectives. You are currently covering these items through the income you earn from employment, but our goal is to cover these items through income derived from trading. When we reach this point and sustain it, you are financially independent.
So how much income do you need each month to become financially independent? What is the monthly combined total of household expenditures, discretionary spending, and contributions towards your financial objectives?
Let’s assume for demonstration purposes that you need $10,000 each month. And let’s further assume that your trading activities are producing an average 20% monthly return on capital. Based on this, how much capital must you accumulate in order to meet your $10,000 per month income objective?
$10,000 / 20 x 100 = $50,000
By simply dividing monthly income by monthly return, and multiplying the result by 100, we have determined that $50,000 capital is required to earn $10,000 per month. You can apply this simple formula if you know: (1) Monthly income needs, and (2) average monthly return from trading.
You can easily calculate your monthly income needs, and you can determine the average monthly return on trading activities by reviewing your past trading results, or looking at the results of a Trade Mirror service such as myfxpt.com.
With this information you can easily determine at which point you have accumulated sufficient capital to meet your needs, and at which point you can cease the capital accumulation phase.
WHERE TO FROM HERE?
Here comes the fun part. For every $1,000 you accumulate beyond your $50,000 minimum required capital, you will earn $200 per month. Add $10,000 to your capital, and you add $2,000 extra income per month. Add $20,000 and you earn an extra $4,000 per month.
You are now in a position to get serious about your future income. For example, simply delaying drawings for two months will add $22,000 to your capital base, which in turn adds $4,400 to future monthly income. Or, take a part drawing of $5,000 per month for four months, and you will still add around $22,000 to your capital base. Or, take no drawings for four months, and add over $40,000 to capital…giving you the potential to earn an extra $8,000 per month. You are now in full control of future potential income.
PASSIVE INCOME
There is much talk about passive income. That is, income you earn without doing anything in return. For example, interest earnings, share dividends, rental income, capital appreciation on shares and property, even affiliate programs and MLM systems, all fall into the category of passive income.
None of the above, however, can take you to financial independence as quickly as a leveraged trading arena can do, and with so little effort in return.
There is high risk, of course, and that is why you must withdraw your start-up capital as soon as possible. In addition, it is important to regularly withdraw rewards along the way to provide a liquid net return on capital. But it is also crucial to build your capital base to ensure ever-increasing future income potential.
This profit management strategy achieves these objectives. It returns original start-up capital to you, whilst retaining an equivalent amount of capital in your trading account. It then allows capital to triple, whilst providing for a one-third reward along the way. And finally, it gives you the opportunity and the means to reach the optimum capital required to meet your ongoing financial objectives both present, and future.
Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/44729-managing-profit.html#ixzz3v1xv2VEd
Stop Loss
OK...
So let me take two comments from my post
1. "for the most part a stop should be implemented."
2. "In general a stop should generally be used."
I clearly fully advocate using a stop loss. period. Especially if you are at the beginnings of your trading career.
However... and I will quite happily repeat myself here... There are certain times when a stop loss is not ideal.. please note that I am not necessarily saying that you should not have a stop loss I'm saying that it can, on occasion, be a disadvantage.
Now lets tackle your points in your post.
1. Not being responsible - As reiterated above I advocate using stop losses. If you are learning to trade then use them 100% of the time. However there are times when you have other options open to you if you employ the right strategy.
2. No consideration to R:R - Again you need to expand your horizons somewhat here. do you realise that mathematically having a risk:reward ratio of 1:2 with 50% winners is as profitable as having a risk:reward of 8:1 with 90% winners? most traders who are learning simply try and have their take profit level twice as far away from entry as their stop level and claim that they have a r:r of 2:1 however this 2:1 number means absolutely nothing unless you have the winning % to back it up. I have a massive view on r:r but I also have a massive focus on trade success probability as well. and that is where a lot of traders lack the understanding of r:r. I'm not saying to just let your losing trades run. That is a sure fire way to blow up an account. However there are ways where you can trade without a stop loss being implemented.
In my opinion having an emergency stop loss (to use your words) is idiotic. A stop loss should only be placed at a price level where if price gets to a certain point it proves that the reason for entering the trade in the first place was incorrect. Just having a stop loss placed at a random point as an emergency is, in my opinion a waste of money should it be hit.
As an investor I have many vehicles that I can use to trade. I can trade spot, short term futures, longer term futures, call options, put options, and I can also combine investment vehicles to create synthetic positions of the above and I can use these vehicles to either speculate or hedge current positions.
Here is an example: I am long EUR/USD I do not have a stop in place. Price is moving against me. What do I do?
(1) I can close out the position which I don't want to do because I am happy with the price that I got and believe that it will go in my favour.
(2) I can enter a stop and risk getting stopped out and losing my position.
(3) I could do nothing and risk exposing myself to large downside.
(4) I could buy a put option which combined with my long position would create a synthetic call. Which in effect would allow me to keep my long position and profit from any upward movement in price while limiting my downside for as long as the option is held or until the option expiry.
(5) If I thought that there was a discrepancy between the current interest rates in the countries pairs and the price of the futures contract of the pair and that the cost of carry was overpriced (the difference between the spot price and the futures price) I could sell the future thus creating an intramarket spread trade which would hedge my long position and also, depending at what price the spot was when I sold the future I could make a profit based on to the narrowing of the spread as the future nears it's expiration date.
(6)If I notice a discrepancy in put/call parity (call premium - put premium = spot price - strike price) if the c-p was greater than the s-k then there may be an opportunity to carry out an arbitrage trade by keeping my long spot position and the selling a call and buying a put. this creates a synthetic short position in the market using options and thus hedges my long position but allows a profit to be made over time from the discrepancy in the parity formula. As the options approach expiry this return will be realised.
Now I have got a little technical above however my main point is there is. In essence, more than one way to skin a cat. And for you to naively say that it is idiotic to not always have a stop loss shows a lack of understanding on your part and I would urge you to educate yourself some more in the markets and the instruments available to you.
And before anyone says that babypips is all about trading spot then I would suggest that in actual fact this website is about learning to trade forex and as such your learning should not stop with learning about a few indicators or learning to trade price action. You should always continue to develop your knowledge and skills and this should go beyond just the spot markets. Believe me the big boys don't only trade spot alone but have a view on all the options available to them.
I would also suggest that perhaps next time you see a post that you don't agree with, instead of questioning the responsibility and calling them an idiot you perhaps enter a more constructive conversation with them as to why they have an opinion or view on something that is different to yours. You never know, what they come up with may just be the edge that you have been looking for.
DT.
Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/12094-how-much-does-average-forex-trader-make-3.html#ixzz3v1nXjzPy
So let me take two comments from my post
1. "for the most part a stop should be implemented."
2. "In general a stop should generally be used."
I clearly fully advocate using a stop loss. period. Especially if you are at the beginnings of your trading career.
However... and I will quite happily repeat myself here... There are certain times when a stop loss is not ideal.. please note that I am not necessarily saying that you should not have a stop loss I'm saying that it can, on occasion, be a disadvantage.
Now lets tackle your points in your post.
1. Not being responsible - As reiterated above I advocate using stop losses. If you are learning to trade then use them 100% of the time. However there are times when you have other options open to you if you employ the right strategy.
2. No consideration to R:R - Again you need to expand your horizons somewhat here. do you realise that mathematically having a risk:reward ratio of 1:2 with 50% winners is as profitable as having a risk:reward of 8:1 with 90% winners? most traders who are learning simply try and have their take profit level twice as far away from entry as their stop level and claim that they have a r:r of 2:1 however this 2:1 number means absolutely nothing unless you have the winning % to back it up. I have a massive view on r:r but I also have a massive focus on trade success probability as well. and that is where a lot of traders lack the understanding of r:r. I'm not saying to just let your losing trades run. That is a sure fire way to blow up an account. However there are ways where you can trade without a stop loss being implemented.
In my opinion having an emergency stop loss (to use your words) is idiotic. A stop loss should only be placed at a price level where if price gets to a certain point it proves that the reason for entering the trade in the first place was incorrect. Just having a stop loss placed at a random point as an emergency is, in my opinion a waste of money should it be hit.
As an investor I have many vehicles that I can use to trade. I can trade spot, short term futures, longer term futures, call options, put options, and I can also combine investment vehicles to create synthetic positions of the above and I can use these vehicles to either speculate or hedge current positions.
Here is an example: I am long EUR/USD I do not have a stop in place. Price is moving against me. What do I do?
(1) I can close out the position which I don't want to do because I am happy with the price that I got and believe that it will go in my favour.
(2) I can enter a stop and risk getting stopped out and losing my position.
(3) I could do nothing and risk exposing myself to large downside.
(4) I could buy a put option which combined with my long position would create a synthetic call. Which in effect would allow me to keep my long position and profit from any upward movement in price while limiting my downside for as long as the option is held or until the option expiry.
(5) If I thought that there was a discrepancy between the current interest rates in the countries pairs and the price of the futures contract of the pair and that the cost of carry was overpriced (the difference between the spot price and the futures price) I could sell the future thus creating an intramarket spread trade which would hedge my long position and also, depending at what price the spot was when I sold the future I could make a profit based on to the narrowing of the spread as the future nears it's expiration date.
(6)If I notice a discrepancy in put/call parity (call premium - put premium = spot price - strike price) if the c-p was greater than the s-k then there may be an opportunity to carry out an arbitrage trade by keeping my long spot position and the selling a call and buying a put. this creates a synthetic short position in the market using options and thus hedges my long position but allows a profit to be made over time from the discrepancy in the parity formula. As the options approach expiry this return will be realised.
Now I have got a little technical above however my main point is there is. In essence, more than one way to skin a cat. And for you to naively say that it is idiotic to not always have a stop loss shows a lack of understanding on your part and I would urge you to educate yourself some more in the markets and the instruments available to you.
And before anyone says that babypips is all about trading spot then I would suggest that in actual fact this website is about learning to trade forex and as such your learning should not stop with learning about a few indicators or learning to trade price action. You should always continue to develop your knowledge and skills and this should go beyond just the spot markets. Believe me the big boys don't only trade spot alone but have a view on all the options available to them.
I would also suggest that perhaps next time you see a post that you don't agree with, instead of questioning the responsibility and calling them an idiot you perhaps enter a more constructive conversation with them as to why they have an opinion or view on something that is different to yours. You never know, what they come up with may just be the edge that you have been looking for.
DT.
Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/12094-how-much-does-average-forex-trader-make-3.html#ixzz3v1nXjzPy
Money can be made in FX but to become successful you have to master money management and expectation much more that of when to pull the trigger on a trade.
In the beginning, I didn't really place much emphasis on the importance of money management as I thought mastering the prediction of price movement was the first challenge. I took it for granted that the application of money management would be a fore gone conclusion as I have a degree in maths.
My 'light bulb' moment came for me when I realised that you cannot predict price movement. All you can do is to have faith and believe that when your criteria has been met for entry into a trade. The chances are that if you where to make the same trade 100 times expect 50 of them will fail. But understand that with the correct money management you can make money from this scenario.
I also started making money when I stopped being influenced by the opinions of others of when and when not to trade along with what and what not to trade. As a famous trader once said "A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game."
It's well documented that you shouldn't trade news or trade on a Friday or a Monday or scaling in/scaling out. Why? Again, many will talk about closing positions because of whipsaws and lack of volatility but some of my most successful days in a week have been a Friday or a Monday and some of my bigger trade successes have been on a news event. To find your own edge you need to free your mind of others opinions.
There are so many threads on here on trading systems that chase pips. I NEVER chase pips. I couldn't even tell you how many pips I make in a week because it is completely irrelevant. Why? you may ask.
It's very, very simple. I chase a percentage of my main account. I enter a trade and whether the SL be 10 pips or 70 pips, it makes no difference because it will still be the same %age of my account. I never trade more that 1% and this leads onto the next important thing. R:R (Risk Reward) is more important to me than the success of a trade. I never take a trade less than 1:1.
The last and most important aspect to become successful is to manage expectation. I am happy if I hit 10% return on my account at the end of a month. Or lets break it down. 2.5% a week !!! Doing the maths on this means that I only need 3 good trades a week at 1% of your main account and at an R:R of 1:1 to be making a healthy profit.
Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/12094-how-much-does-average-forex-trader-make-2.html#ixzz3v1gdCIwX
In the beginning, I didn't really place much emphasis on the importance of money management as I thought mastering the prediction of price movement was the first challenge. I took it for granted that the application of money management would be a fore gone conclusion as I have a degree in maths.
My 'light bulb' moment came for me when I realised that you cannot predict price movement. All you can do is to have faith and believe that when your criteria has been met for entry into a trade. The chances are that if you where to make the same trade 100 times expect 50 of them will fail. But understand that with the correct money management you can make money from this scenario.
I also started making money when I stopped being influenced by the opinions of others of when and when not to trade along with what and what not to trade. As a famous trader once said "A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game."
It's well documented that you shouldn't trade news or trade on a Friday or a Monday or scaling in/scaling out. Why? Again, many will talk about closing positions because of whipsaws and lack of volatility but some of my most successful days in a week have been a Friday or a Monday and some of my bigger trade successes have been on a news event. To find your own edge you need to free your mind of others opinions.
There are so many threads on here on trading systems that chase pips. I NEVER chase pips. I couldn't even tell you how many pips I make in a week because it is completely irrelevant. Why? you may ask.
It's very, very simple. I chase a percentage of my main account. I enter a trade and whether the SL be 10 pips or 70 pips, it makes no difference because it will still be the same %age of my account. I never trade more that 1% and this leads onto the next important thing. R:R (Risk Reward) is more important to me than the success of a trade. I never take a trade less than 1:1.
The last and most important aspect to become successful is to manage expectation. I am happy if I hit 10% return on my account at the end of a month. Or lets break it down. 2.5% a week !!! Doing the maths on this means that I only need 3 good trades a week at 1% of your main account and at an R:R of 1:1 to be making a healthy profit.
Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/12094-how-much-does-average-forex-trader-make-2.html#ixzz3v1gdCIwX
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